The Government of Pakistan is working on strategies for climate action and determining associated investment needs. The climate action is based on key national policies such as the 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the 2021 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), and the 2021 National Adaptation Plan. The NDCs set a conditional target of an overall 50% reduction of emissions between 2015 and 2030 relative to business as usual, with a 15% reduction using the country’s own resources, and an additional 35% subject to international financial support. The NDC’s emission reduction focus is on four sectors: energy, including transport; industrial processes and product use (IPPU); AFOLU; and waste; but the document also covers adaptation, health, ecosystems and blue economy priorities. Quantitative targets are set for energy (by 2030, 60% of all energy will be from renewable resources including hydropower) and transport (by 2030, 30% of all new vehicles sold will be electric vehicles). There is also a moratorium on new coal plants and no generation of power through imported coal shall be allowed. The Ten Billion Tree Tsunami afforestation program remains a flagship government initiative. Qualitative targets exist in AFOLU and waste. It is not yet clear whether Pakistan will ratchet its NDC in 2022 as called for in the Glasgow Climate Pact. Further, the National Adaptation Plan incorporates medium and long-term climate change concerns into national policies, strategies, and programs. Three adaptation areas have been shortlisted for priority action through the adaptation lens, namely nature-based solutions, land-use change and forestry, and community infrastructure.

Preliminary, Pakistan’s climate goals require $101 billion just for energy transition. The country’s climate adaptation needs range between $7 billion and $14 billion a year. Given that the GDP of Pakistan is around $284bn (2020), there needs to be a significant enhancement of both, international climate finance as well as private sector financing. Pakistan has secured project funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for mitigation and adaption projects (along with GCF readiness support), as well as the Adaptation Fund, the NAMA Facility, World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. However, the scale of investments is not adequate for Pakistan to meet the revised NDC targets.

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